Arsenal aiming for the quadruple, raise your hands!

After defeating Mansfield to advance to the FA Cup quarter-finals, Arsenal has the opportunity to conquer all four titles this season. However, according to supercomputers, the likelihood of that happening is only about 2.94%.

This small number reminds us that English football history has almost never welcomed such a scenario. In recent years, the idea of a quadruple often emerges towards the end of the season but rarely becomes reality. Under Jurgen Klopp and even last season, Liverpool frequently entered March with hopes of winning all four trophies, but never succeeded. Even Pep Guardiola's Manchester City empire or Alex Ferguson's glorious era at Manchester United have not achieved it.

Reason…

This indicates a simple reality: The quadruple is almost beyond the limits of English football.

Nevertheless, Mikel Arteta's team still has very clear foundations to nurture this historic ambition. Arsenal currently possesses one of the most stable tactical structures in Europe, along with match control and risk mitigation abilities far superior to previous seasons. They are also one of the most difficult teams to defeat in both England and the continent this season.

However, history always reminds us that conquering multiple trophies simultaneously does not solely depend on strength. Subjective errors and objective variables, from injuries, fixture schedules to form, can always alter the course of the entire season. This is especially true for English clubs, which typically maintain the highest playing intensity in Europe.

The Premier League is where The Gunners' opportunity is most evident. The North London club has created a 7-point gap over Manchester City with only 9 rounds remaining in the season. More importantly, they are demonstrating stability in the decisive phase, a factor that previously caused them to falter in past title races.

Manchester City's decline and Liverpool's form crisis have also made the competition less fierce. According to prediction models, Pep's team might only finish the season with around 76 points, a figure unlikely sufficient to claim the crown.

But the biggest difference for Arsenal this season lies in how they secure victories. Arteta's team no longer relies on spectacular performances; they have learned to overcome "rough" matches, minimal wins that are decisive in the long run.

In the Champions League, the Opta supercomputer even rates Arsenal as the top contender for the title with a 27.4% probability. This number not only reflects the London club's stable form but also indicates that the rest of Europe is entering a phase of significant fluctuations.

Traditional rivals like Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are both experiencing certain periods of instability, and both have been subdued by Arsenal. PSG is no longer a stunning force, while Barcelona still hasn't reached the necessary completeness to dominate Europe.

This gives Arsenal confidence that they can conquer the continent's biggest trophy.

… Or mluck

However, the European arena itself also reveals a familiar reality of football: things do not always follow logic. The Champions League is often decided by small moments—a personal mistake, a late goal, or a stroke of luck. The tournament's history witnessed Manchester United reversing the situation against Bayern Munich in just 90 seconds in the 1999 final, a classic example of the unpredictability of top-level football.

In domestic cup competitions, risks are also significant. Despite being the most successful team in FA Cup history, Arsenal still faces a congested fixture schedule and the pressure of maintaining form across multiple fronts simultaneously. Knockout tournaments always contain surprises, where a single moment of lapse can change the entire season.

Perhaps, the League Cup final against Manchester City will become the turning point of the season. A defeat could lead to doubts and psychological setbacks before the decisive phase. But if victorious, the narrative could shift entirely, from questioning whether Arsenal can win a trophy to how many trophies they can win.

The current Gunners are likely the most mature version under Arteta: a stable, disciplined collective that knows how to overcome difficult moments. But if football history teaches us anything, it is that great seasons are not solely determined by tactics, class, or form. Sometimes, they are also decided by a timely stroke of luck.